The Cornerbrook Region is located on the west coast of Newfoundland. The main urban center is the City of Cornerbrook (pop. 19,806) located approximately 700km from St John’s. The other two main towns in the region are Pasadena (pop. 3,620) and Deer Lake (pop. 5,249).
Currently, median hourly wages for shellfish/fish labourers are slightly above the provincial average and median hourly wages for shellfish/fish plant workers are slightly below the provincial average. These wages, however, are higher than the majority of other lower-skill level occupations (C and D level) available in the region.
The region’s population is expected to decrease at an average annual growth rate of -0.4% over the forecast period, falling from 34,300 in 2017 to 32,700 by 2030. The region’s population decline over the forecast period can be attributed to net out-migration of 750 individuals and natural population decline (more deaths than births). Aging demographics are expected to cause the region’s high unemployment rate to fall from 21.9% in 2017 to just over 13.0% by 2030, reducing labour availability for all employers in the region
Seafood processing employment in the Cornerbrook, Newfoundland and Labrador region is expected to remain stable around 550 workers between 2017 and 2030. Local processors will likely need to hire nearly 300 additional workers between 2018 and 2030, driven entirely by the need to replace workforce retirements and deaths. This figure does not include turnovers which can add significantly to total annual recruitment demands.
Regional labour market analysis suggests that after accounting for labour requirements in other sectors, local seafood processing employment demand will exceed available supply during peak periods by 2021. This likely means significant numbers of workers from outside the region will be required to meet peak demands. Seasonal peaks in seafood processing employment in Newfoundland and Labrador can effectively double average annual demands. Supply constraints are expected to be even more acute among lower-skill workers, as regional labour supply is not projected to meet peak seafood processing employment demand for any year during the forecast period. Supply constraints are not expected to change over the forecast period and even average annual demand for lower-skill workers is not likely to be met locally over the latter half of the next decade.
The labour market tightness, a measure calculated by estimating labour requirements in other sectors in the Cornerbrook Region and subtracting those requirements from the total labour force estimates, reveals the challenges facing this industry.
1 = Regional labour force meets seafood processing employment demand at annual average and peak employment levels
2 = Regional labour force meets seafood processing employment demand at annual average levels only
3 = Regional labour force does not meet seafood processing employment at annual average or peak levels
1 The number of establishments is based on 2016 data from Statistics Canada’s Business Register.
2 Seafood processing employment is estimated based on 2016 Census data for the Southern (NS) economic region
This report is one in a series of 12 regional reports developed to provide detailed labour market information (LMI) for the fi sh and seafood processing industry in Atlantic Canada. The regionally focused LMI is one component of a broader study undertaken by Food Processing Skills Canada (FPSC) in collaboration with the Employment and Social Development Canada, and various provincial and industry partners entitled Securing Canada’s Fish and Seafood Workforce: Real Challenges, Practical Solutions and Fresh Perspectives.
The aim of the overall study is to identify the scope of human resource (HR) challenges for the Atlantic fi sh and seafood processing sector, and compile HR best practices that would help employers meet their labour force current and future needs. One important aspect of understanding HR challenges in the sector, some of which are region specifi c, was to gather detailed information and profi les of areas that rely heavily on fi sh and seafood processing for their local economies. Twelve regions across the four Atlantic provinces were selected for specifi c focus based on the amount of processing activity, and proportion of labour force working in the industry. Cornerbrook Region in Newfoundland was selected as one of these regions for detailed focus.
The initial sections of this report provide overviews of the Cornerbrook Region, fi sh and seafood processing overall in the province of Newfoundland, and specifically in the Cornerbrook region. This is followed by sections that provide an overview of the region’s labour force, and the specific findings for the labour supply and demand, current and future.
The Cornerbrook Region is located on the west coast of Newfoundland. The main urban center is the City of Cornerbrook (pop. 19,806) located approximately 700km from St John’s. The other two main towns in the region are Pasadena (pop. 3,620) and Deer Lake (pop. 5,249).
The population of Cornerbrook is ageing and not expected to grow substantially over the next decade. Compared to the province overall, the population has proportionally lower levels of immigrants, visible minorities and non-Canadian citizens, but higher proportions of people identifying as Aboriginal (according to Census definitions).
The overall population for the region in 2017 was 34,333. According to Census 2016 profiles, the proportions of immigrants (1.8%), visible minorities (1.2%) and non-Canadian citizens (1.1%) are lower than those overall for Newfoundland, but there is a substantially higher proportion of the population that identify as Aboriginal according to Census definitions (22.2%) (see Table 1).
TABLE 1: CORNERBROOK REGION POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
| CHARACTERISTIC | CORNERBROOK REGION | NEWFOUNDLAND |
|---|---|---|
| FEMALE | 17,485 | 265,790 |
| SHARE OF POPULATION | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| IMMIGRANTS | 595 | 12,075 |
| SHARE OF POPULATION | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| NOT CANADIAN CITIZENS | 360 | 9,090 |
| SHARE OF POPULATION | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| VISIBLE MINORITIES | 410 | 11,810 |
| SHARE OF POPULATION | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| ABORIGINAL IDENTITY | 7,345 | 45,725 |
| SHARE OF POPULATION | 22.2% | 8.9% |
Source: Census 2016
According to projections, the population levels are expected to decline over the upcoming 13 years (34,333 in 2017 and then 32,901 by 2030). Along with the declining population, it will also be an ageing population with the proportion of the age cohort 65 years or older rising from 23.0% in 2017 to approximately 32.3% by 2030 (see Figure 1). Population growth will be negatively impacted by the continued ageing of the population and increased number of deaths and net out-migration of 750 individuals combined with a low birth rate will contribute to the region’s declining population by 2030. Overall, the period under study will be impacted by the predicted larger numbers of deaths than births in the region, which, combined with net out-migration patterns will result in a decline in population (see Figure 2).
The overall education level of the region’s residents is similar to that observed in Newfoundland overall (see Figure 3). Twenty one percent (21%) do not have a high school diploma (vs. 23% for the province), and 26% (vs. 25% for the province) have a secondary school degree.
Newfoundland and Labrador’s GDP was hit hard by the drop in oil prices in 2014-15, resulting in the provincial GDP falling. Real GDP bounced back in 2016-17 helped by strong growth in the energy sector. Oil related exports are expected to help drive growth in the economy over most of the forecast period. Falling investment is expected to be offset by a full year of production at the Hebron offshore platform in 2018, leaving overall growth stagnant. GDP growth averages 0.5% over the medium term before increasing to 1.6% per year over 2022-26 as production at the White West Rose oil field helps to offset the end of production at Terra Nova and the Voisey’s Bay nickel mine extension comes online. Over the 201730 period real GDP growth is anticipated to average 1.0%.
The overall growth of real gross output (or total endmarket demand) or prepared fish products is expected to accelerate over the forecast period after declining sharply on average over the 2013 to 2017 period to average 1.5% over the 2018-21 period, 2.6% over 202226 and 2.6% over the 2027-30 period. There are many reasons for the improvement in overall real gross output. There is expected to be a deceleration in the decline in overall consumption and ultimately a reversal as population decline moderates and consumer demand for prepared fish products improves. International exports are expected to rise at a moderate pace throughout the forecast period as trading partner market growth is moderately strong and trade agreements encourage market penetration in the European Union and in the members of the TPP trade pact. Interprovincial exports are expected to improve as consumer demand for processed fish products in other provinces increase. Interindustry demand also improves as the demand for processed fish inputs rises, primarily as a result of increased provincial food production.
TABLE 2: NL PREPARED SEAFOOD END MARKET GROWTH (ANNUAL AVERAGE % CHANGE)
| END USE MARKET | 2013-2017 | 2018-2021 | 2022-2026 | 2027-2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| International Exports | -8.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Interprovincial Exports | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Interindustry Demand | -0.8 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Imports | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Total End Market Demand | -7.9 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
Seafood processing employment is expected to remain near current levels of 1,500 workers (-0.7% change from 2018 to 2030) assuming the industry can sustain significant productivity gains. Seafood processing real GDP is forecast to expand by 1.3% on average over the 2018-21 period, then the pace of growth is expected to quicken to 2.4% on average over 2022-26 and 2027-30. Labour productivity (GDP per hour worked) is forecast to expand at 1.7% on average over the forecast period. In order to produce the forecasted output total hours of work is forecast to fall by -0.4% on average over 2018-21, and then increase by 0.6% and 0.7% on average over 2022-26 and 2027-30 respectively in order to produce the forecasted output. Average hours worked per employee is forecast to rise over the projection period by 0.4% on average, which leads to the total number of jobs falling by -0.8% over 2018-21, and then rising by 0.3% over 2022-26 and 0.3% over 2027-30.
Replacement demands (deaths and retirements) are expected to total 775 between 2017 and 2030. This represents the need to replace half (51%) of the current workforce over the next 13 years. These hiring requirements are net numbers of new workers and do not include annual hiring requirements due to turnover, which can double or triple the actual number of annual new hires needed to sustain employment requirements.
The region hosts four processors ranging in size.
Overall, there are four fish and seafood processing establishments in the Cornerbrook Region 2 .
The estimated total number of individuals employed by the sector in the Cornerbrook Region in 2017 was 561 on average and rising to 1,103 at peak season3 (see Table 3). Over two-thirds of all employed at the peak season (68%) were labourers (NOC 9618) or plant workers (NOC 9463).
2 Number of establishments is based on the 2016 data from Statistic Canada’s Business Registrar.
3 Average employment refers to average monthly employment over the calendar year, while peak employment is the average number employed during the month with the highest employment during the year.
TABLE 3: PROFILE OF WORKERS BY OCCUPATIONS FOR CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017 (AVERAGE & PEAK)
| AVG 2017 (#) | AVG 2017 (%) | PEAK 2017 (#) | PEAK 2017 (%) | EXTRA NEEDED FOR PEAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Employment | 561 | 100% | 1,077 | 100% | 516 |
| FOUNDATIONAL (NOC 9618) | |||||
| Shellfish Processing Labourer | 104 | 19% | 258 | 24% | 154 |
| Fish Processing Labourer | 65 | 12% | 162 | 15% | 97 |
| INTERMEDIATE (NOC 9463) | |||||
| Shellfish Plant Worker | 82 | 15% | 204 | 19% | 122 |
| Fish Plant Worker | 52 | 9% | 129 | 12% | 77 |
| SUPERVISORY (NOC 9213) | |||||
| Supervisors | 18 | 3% | 18 | 2% | 0 |
| MANAGEMENT (NOC 0911; 0016) | |||||
| Management | 16 | 3% | 16 | 1% | 0 |
| OTHER CATEGORIES | |||||
| Maintenance | 18 | 3% | 23 | 2% | 5 |
| Skilled Trades | 38 | 7% | 57 | 5% | 19 |
| Quality Control Technician | 10 | 2% | 13 | 1% | 3 |
| Office Staff | 27 | 5% | 27 | 3% | 0 |
| Other Occupations * | 130 | 23% | 195 | 18% | 65 |
* this includes occupations in areas such as transport, logistics, material handlers that do not fall within the main NOC codes identified above.
Median hourly wages for shellfish/fish labourers are slightly above the provincial average and median wages for shellfish/ fish plant workers are slightly below the provincial average. Median wages for both occupations are higher than the majority of other C and D level occupations available in the region.
The median hourly wage for shellfish/fish labourers (NOC 9618) in the West Coast-Northern Peninsula- Labrador Region of Newfoundland in 2017 was $14.30/hour (see Table 4). The median wage for shellfish/fish plant workers (NOC 9463) was slightly lower at $13.68/hour. The wage rates for shellfish/fish labourers (NOC 9618) were higher than the provincial median rates ($13.70/hour) and the rates for shellfish/fish plant workers (NOC 9463) were slightly lower than the provincial median wage rate ($14.00/hour). To provide some context, the minimum wage in Newfoundland in 2017 was $11.00/hour and increased to $11.15 in 2018.
When compared with other C&D Level Occupations in the same region, the median wages for shellfish/fish labourers and plant workers were generally higher by approximately $2.00/hour.
TABLE 4: WAGE LEVELS FOR SELECTED OCCUPATIONS – 2017 ($/HOUR)
| Low Wage(10th percentile) | Median Wage(50th percentile) | High Wage(90th percentile) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shellfish/Fish Processing Labourer (NOC 9618) | |||
| West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador Region (NL) | 12.48 | 14.30 | 17.50 |
| All Newfoundland | 11.78 | 13.70 | 16.05 |
| South Coast- Burin Peninsula (NL) | 11.40 | 13.52 | 16.05 |
| Avalon Peninsula (NL) | 11.50 | 13.70 | 16.00 |
| Shellfish/Fish Plant Worker (NOC 9463) | |||
| West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador Region (NL) | 12.54 | 13.68 | 15.70 |
| All Newfoundland | 12.58 | 14.00 | 15.81 |
| South Coast- Burin Peninsula (NL) | 11.85 | 14.20 | 15.85 |
| Avalon Peninsula (NL) | 12.90 | 13.68 | 15.60 |
| Other C&D Level Occupations (NL) | |||
| Farm Worker (NOC 8431) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Deckhand, Fishing (NOC 8441) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Retail Sales (NOC 6421) | 11.15 | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| Food Services (NOC 6711) | 11.15 | 12.00 | 20.40 |
| Cashier (NOC 6611) | 11.15 | 11.15 | 12.00 |
Source: Employment and Social Development Canada – Job Bank – abour Market Information
6 The Saint John-St. Stephen Region of New Brunswick includes the Charlotte Region as well as some additional areas. Reliable wage data was only available for this slightly larger region.
The overall size of the labour force for the region in 2017 was estimated at 19,569 (out of a total population of 34,333). The largest proportions of the labour force for the Corner Brook CA work in health and social assistance (20% of the labour force), retail trade (17%), and construction (9%) (Census, 2016).
According to Census 2016 data, more than one-quarter (29%) of the population 15 years or older worked full-time for the full-year (see Figure 4). A larger proportion worked part of the year and/or part-time (32%), while an even larger proportion (39%) reported not working in 2015.
FIGURE 4: WORK PATTERNS (15 YEARS OR OLDER) – CORNERBROOK REGION
THE AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THE REGION IN 2017 WAS 21.9%, WITH CONSIDERABLE MONTHLY FLUCTUATIONS GIVEN THE SEASONALITY OF MANY OF THE INDUSTRIES.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (All Occupations) | 2,820 | 2,673 | 2,707 | 2,777 | 2,530 | 2,293 | 2,370 | 2,390 | 2,207 | 2,260 | 2,387 | 2,843 |
| Skill Level C & D* | 1,627 | 1,587 | 1,607 | 1,640 | 1,480 | 1,343 | 1,327 | 1,360 | 1,283 | 1,313 | 1,417 | 1,630 |
| Food Processing** | 173 | 177 | 177 | 170 | 123 | 110 | 117 | 150 | 150 | 147 | 140 | 140 |
*includes intermediate jobs that usually call for high school and/or job-specific training (Skill Level C) & labour jobs that usually give on-the-job training (Skill Level D)
**includes the following occupations: manufacturing managers (NOC 0911); bakers (6,332); retail salespersons (6,421); material handlers (7,452); food and beverage processing supervisors (9,213); industrial butchers and meat cutters (9,462); fish and seafood plant workers (9,463); food and beverage processing labourers (9,617) Source: Employment and Social Development Canada 2017
4 Monthly EI beneficiaries as reported in the table represent the average number of beneficiaries in the month between 2014 and 2016
The unemployment rate for the region in 2017 was 21.9% on average, but monthly the rate experiences considerable fluctuations from no unemployment in some months to a high of 39.0%. According to Census data, approximately 17% of the population 15 years or older who had income received regular Employment Insurance (EI) payments at some point in 2015.
According to EI data provided by ESDC for the region, the average monthly number of EI claimants in food processing sectors across three years demonstrates the seasonality of the number of EI claimants ranging from an average low of 110 in June and over 170 in the months of January to March (see Table 5). Figure 5 also demonstrates the seasonality of the number of EI claimants with the cyclical pattern illustrated to be similar across the three years of available data (2014-2016) with increasing numbers of claimants occurring each of the three years for overall claims (+10.6% change for overall claims on an annual average for this period) and similar number of claimants for food processing (-0.3% change).
FIGURE 5: MONTHLY EI CLAIMANTS FOR CORNERBROOK REGION – 2014 TO 2016
THERE IS CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT LOCAL LABOUR FORCE TO MEET THE REGION’S LABOUR REQUIREMENTS (FOR ALL INDUSTRIES) ON AVERAGE FOR THE REGION, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL POTENTIAL GAP INCREASES DURING PEAK PERIODS LEADING TO A TIGHT LABOUR MARKET. THE LABOUR MARKET CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THROUGH TO 2030. FOR THE FISH AND SHELLFISH PROCESSORS, THIS SHORTAGE IS MOST SEVERE DURING THE PROCESSING PEAK SEASON WHICH UNFORTUNATELY TENDS TO COINCIDE WITH MANY OTHER COMPETING SECTORS’ PEAK SEASONS.
TABLE 6: POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE OUTLOOK SUMMARY – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | AVG 2021- 2025 | AVG 2026- 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 34,333 | 34,242 | 34,047 | 33,813 | 33,345 | 32,901 |
| Avg. Annual Change (%) | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.4% | -0.3% | |
| Total Labour Force | 19,569 | 19,432 | 19,156 | 18,783 | 18,251 | 17,584 |
| Avg. Annual Change (%) | -0.7% | -1.4% | -1.9% | -0.8% | -0.8% | |
| Total Employment | 15,284 | 15,118 | 15,075 | 14,980 | 15,074 | 15,079 |
| Avg. Annual Change (%) | -1.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
| Unemployment Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% | 21.3% | 20.3% | 17.4% | 14.2% |
The model projections indicate that taking into account the trends in out-migration, and ageing population, the Charlotte Region will have little population growth within the period under study (2017 to 2030) (see Table 6). These factors will also contribute to a relatively constant sized labour force of approximately 10,000 between 2017 and 2030. As a result, unemployment rates are expected to decline from an average of 11.3% to 7.2% based on increased opportunities, coupled with a slight decline in the overall labour force.
Specifi cally for this project, the analytic team developed an approach to demonstrate the “tightness” of the labour market in supplying the employment demands from seafood processing in the identifi ed regions. This was calculated by estimating labour requirements in other sectors in the region (non seafood-processing labour requirements) and subtracting those requirements from the total labour force estimates. This diff erence results in an estimated “residual” labour force for the region from which seafood processing needs to draw. Not all of the seafood processing workers come from the residual pool, as the sector actively competes with other sectors for workers; however, the “tightness” measure indicates where shortages are likely occurring for not only the seafood processing sector but likely other sectors drawing from the same labour supply. Using this approach, the current and future labour market tightness was calculated to determine the extent to which the region’s labour force can meet the labour requirements of all sectors (both non-seafood processing and seafood processing).
As illustrated in Table 7 and Figure 6, the Total Seafood Processing Employment (Annual Average and Peak) is higher than the Residual Total Labour Force. This suggests that there is currently (2017) an insuffi cient local labour force to meet all of the region’s labour requirements (for all industries) leaving an overall potential gap which increases during peak periods. This trend continues all the way through to 2030, increasing towards the second half of this period.
The analysis outlined in Table 7 and Figure 6 describes the labour market context within which the fi sh and seafood processors are operating with respect to fi nding suffi cient numbers of workers from the local labour supply. Within this very tight, competitive labour market, the industry employers have had some success recruiting. For example, in peak season in 2017, the seafood processing industry was able to recruit and employ 1,511 within a labour market that had a residual total labour force of only 496. This means that the seafood processing industry was likely recruiting workers from other industries, and potentially recruiting workers from outside the local region. While the industry did experience vacancies, these would likely have been substantially higher had it not been successful in recruiting labour external to the region, and/or competing with other industries in recruiting workers.
TABLE 7: TOTAL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS – CHARLOTTE REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | AVG 2021-2025 | AVG 2026-2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Labour Force5 | 19,569 | 19,432 | 19,156 | 18,783 | 18,251 | 17,584 |
| Total Non-Seafood Processing Labour Requirement6 | 18,457 | 18,268 | 18,028 | 17,705 | 17,306 | 16,884 |
| Residual Total Labour Force7 | 1,112 | 1,164 | 1,127 | 1,078 | 945 | 700 |
| Total Seafood Processing Employment (Annual Average) | 5 | 558 | 548 | 548 | 549 | 553 |
| Total Seafood Processing Employment (Peak) | 112 | 1,096 | 1,077 | 1,078 | 1,079 | 1,087 |
FIGURE 6: TOTAL SEAFOOD PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT AND RESIDUAL LABOUR FORCE CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
5 The labour force includes all individuals who are either employed or unemployed and actively seeking work. The unemployed would include those on regular EI claims along with those receiving other sources of income (e.g., social assistance) who are actively looking for employment.
6 Non-seafood processing labour requirement consists of employment demand from other sectors with an allowance for typical levels of sector-specific unemployment.
7 The residual labour force is the difference between the labour force and the non-seafood processing labour requirement.
As noted in the description of the occupations, over two-thirds of the occupations in the industry in this region are in the “C” and “D” levels which are often referred to as “lower-skill level” occupations, not requiring post-secondary education. As well, these occupations are noted among plant managers as the most challenging with respect to recruitment and retention. Given much of the focus is on the lower-skill level labour force, the study also analysed the “tightness” of the lower-skill level labour market (see Table 8 and Figure 7). The tightness of lower-skill level labour market is higher than the overall labour market. For example, in peak season in 2017, the seafood processing industry was able to recruit and employ 685 workers within a labour market that had a residual total labour force of only 364. This means that the seafood processing industry was likely recruiting workers from other industries, and potentially recruiting workers from outside the local region. This level of tightness suggests that many of the industries that rely on a lower-skill level labour market are also experiencing labour shortages in this region.
TABLE 8: LOWER-SKILL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | AVG 2021-2025 | AVG 2026-2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower-Skill Labour Force5 | 6,696 | 6,649 | 6,554 | 6,427 | 6,245 | 6,016 |
| Lower-Skill Non-Seafood Processing Labour Requirement6 | 6,331 | 6,234 | 6,137 | 6,003 | 5,851 | 5,772 |
| Residual Lower-Skill Labour Force7 | 364 | 414 | 417 | 424 | 394 | 353 |
| Lower-Skill Seafood Processing Employment (Annual Average) | 348 | 346 | 339 | 339 | 339 | 344 |
| Lower-Skill Seafood Processing Employment (Peak) | 685 | 680 | 667 | 667 | 666 | 676 |
8 The lower-skill labour force is the portion of the total labour force with no education beyond a high school diploma.
FIGURE 7: LOWER-SKILL SEAFOOD PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT AND RESIDUAL LABOUR FORCE CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
The overall summary of the labour market tightness as modeled for the Cornerbrook Region (Table 9) demonstrates that the local labour force is meeting the employment requirements of employers in the area at average levels (and meeting requirements at peak levels for a short period between 2017 and 2020). Alhough the requirements of the overall labour market are being met, the requirements of the lower-level skill labour market are being met for average levels only. The labour market is expected to tighten, with difficulties meeting employment requirements in peak season as early as 2021 for both the overall and the lowerskill labour markets. These results assume similar industry employment demand (e.g., no new major employers arriving or leaving the area), and no major changes in net migration patterns.
TABLE 9: SUMMARY OF LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
1 = Regional labour force meets seafood processing employment demand at annual average and peak employment levels
2 = Regional labour force meets seafood processing employment demand at annual average levels only
3 = Regional labour force does not meet seafood processing employment at annual average or peak levels
Within a tight labour market, projections indicate that the Cornerbrook Region employers will need to attract approximately 285 new workers to the fish and seafood processing industry by 2030. This is equivalent to approximately 51% of their current annual average workforce. This requirement is due to replacement of anticipated retirements over this period, while considering projected industry growth and labour productivity gains. Unfortunately, this recruitment will be occurring within the context of a tight regional labour market that although is not currently experiencing severe labour shortages, these are predicted to start as early as 2021. This tightness in the labour market is contributing to the high number of current vacancies experienced by employers in seafood processing (estimated at 12% in Atlantic Canada), and to some degree the higher turnover rates in the industry as workers have more employment opportunities from which to choose, particularly in the lower-skill level occupations (estimated turnover rate of 40% for Atlantic Canada in seafood processing industry). All of these factors contribute to the substantial challenges facing Cornerbrook Region seafood processors in their attempts to recruit enough workers to replace retirements, fill ongoing vacancies, work to address turnover rates, while also trying to grow, remain competitive and increase productivity.
Overall, it is anticipated that while there will be some shedding of jobs in the short term (2017-2018) due to negative industry growth, but as of 2019, there will be a need for increased numbers of new hires, due to the need for replacements due to anticipated retirements and deaths among the workforce (see Table 10). Overall, this results in the need to attract 285 new workers to the industry between 2018 and 2030. This equates to replacing approximately 51% of the 2017 average seafood processing workforce in the region.
TABLE 10: HIRING REQUIREMENT OUTLOOK – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | SUM 2021- 2025 | SUM 2026- 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Hiring Requirement12 | -191 | 20 | 13 | 23 | 113 | 116 |
| Industry Growth | -214 | -3 | -10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Retirements and Mortality | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 110 | 111 |
The employment outlook according to occupation is detailed in Table 11 (Annual Average) and Table 12 (Peak).
TABLE 11: EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK (ANNUAL AVERAGE) – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | AVG 2021- 2025 | AVG 2026- 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Employment | 561 | 558 | 548 | 548 | 549 | 553 |
| Shellfish Processing Labourer | 104 | 103 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 103 |
| Fish Processing Labourer | 65 | 65 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
| Shellfish Plant Worker | 82 | 82 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 81 |
| Fish Plant Worker | 52 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Supervisors | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Maintenance | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Skilled Trades | 38 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Quality Control Technician | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Management | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Office Staff | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Other Occupations | 130 | 129 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 128 |
9 Net hiring requirement does not include hiring required as a result of turnover (i.e. hiring workers to replace individuals who quit or are fired from their positions). The imputed turnover rate (total number of people workers hired as a share of the total number of workers) for Atlantic seafood processors is 40%.
TABLE 12: EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK (PEAK) – CORNERBROOK REGION – 2017-2030
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | AVG 2021- 2025 | AVG 2026- 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Employment | 1,103 | 1,096 | 1,077 | 1,078 | 1,079 | 1,087 |
| Shellfish Processing Labourer | 258 | 256 | 252 | 252 | 252 | 254 |
| Fish Processing Labourer | 162 | 161 | 158 | 158 | 159 | 160 |
| Shellfish Plant Worker | 204 | 203 | 199 | 199 | 199 | 201 |
| Fish Plant Worker | 129 | 128 | 126 | 126 | 126 | 127 |
| Supervisors | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Maintenance | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Skilled Trades | 57 | 56 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 56 |
| Quality Control Technician | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Management | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Office Staff | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Other Occupations | 195 | 194 | 191 | 191 | 191 | 193 |